Summary statistics

Column 1

Number of observations

2798

Success rate

Distribution across treatments

Column 2

Last update

November 25 2019

Success rate by treatment

Weeks

Column 1

Success rate by week of intake

Assignment probabilities

Column 2

Observations by treatment and week of intake

Assignment shares

Strata

Column 1

Success rate by stratum

Column 2

Distribution across strata

Tabulated data

The following tables have treatment in columns and strata in rows.

Column 1

Total number of observations

cash information psychological control
Syr,M,< HS,never emp 38 28 54 48
Syr,M,< HS,ever emp 72 52 71 103
Syr,M,>= HS,never emp 3 3 3 4
Syr,M,>= HS,ever emp 4 2 7 11
Syr,F,< HS,never emp 168 93 122 127
Syr,F,< HS,ever emp 37 25 51 55
Syr,F,>= HS,never emp 7 5 8 6
Syr,F,>= HS,ever emp 3 3 1 4
Jor,M,< HS,never emp 35 33 35 82
Jor,M,< HS,ever emp 31 75 95 80
Jor,M,>= HS,never emp 13 21 11 8
Jor,M,>= HS,ever emp 36 19 24 46
Jor,F,< HS,never emp 61 152 120 86
Jor,F,< HS,ever emp 42 51 65 47
Jor,F,>= HS,never emp 41 42 47 32
Jor,F,>= HS,ever emp 19 20 63 48

Column 2

Total number of successes

cash information psychological control
Syr,M,< HS,never emp 2 0 1 2
Syr,M,< HS,ever emp 5 3 5 8
Syr,M,>= HS,never emp 1 0 0 1
Syr,M,>= HS,ever emp 0 0 1 1
Syr,F,< HS,never emp 6 2 1 0
Syr,F,< HS,ever emp 1 1 2 1
Syr,F,>= HS,never emp 1 0 0 0
Syr,F,>= HS,ever emp 0 0 0 0
Jor,M,< HS,never emp 1 1 1 6
Jor,M,< HS,ever emp 3 8 11 10
Jor,M,>= HS,never emp 2 4 1 0
Jor,M,>= HS,ever emp 3 1 0 4
Jor,F,< HS,never emp 1 6 5 3
Jor,F,< HS,ever emp 6 4 4 3
Jor,F,>= HS,never emp 3 2 1 2
Jor,F,>= HS,ever emp 0 0 9 3

Column 3

Success rates

cash information psychological control
Syr,M,< HS,never emp 0.05 0.00 0.02 0.04
Syr,M,< HS,ever emp 0.07 0.06 0.07 0.08
Syr,M,>= HS,never emp 0.33 0.00 0.00 0.25
Syr,M,>= HS,ever emp 0.00 0.00 0.14 0.09
Syr,F,< HS,never emp 0.04 0.02 0.01 0.00
Syr,F,< HS,ever emp 0.03 0.04 0.04 0.02
Syr,F,>= HS,never emp 0.14 0.00 0.00 0.00
Syr,F,>= HS,ever emp 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Jor,M,< HS,never emp 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.07
Jor,M,< HS,ever emp 0.10 0.11 0.12 0.12
Jor,M,>= HS,never emp 0.15 0.19 0.09 0.00
Jor,M,>= HS,ever emp 0.08 0.05 0.00 0.09
Jor,F,< HS,never emp 0.02 0.04 0.04 0.03
Jor,F,< HS,ever emp 0.14 0.08 0.06 0.06
Jor,F,>= HS,never emp 0.07 0.05 0.02 0.06
Jor,F,>= HS,ever emp 0.00 0.00 0.14 0.06

Parameter estimates

Column 1

Posterior expectation of success probabilities

cash information psychological control
Syr,M,< HS,never emp 0.06 0.04 0.04 0.05
Syr,M,< HS,ever emp 0.07 0.06 0.06 0.07
Syr,M,>= HS,never emp 0.08 0.05 0.05 0.09
Syr,M,>= HS,ever emp 0.06 0.06 0.07 0.07
Syr,F,< HS,never emp 0.05 0.03 0.02 0.01
Syr,F,< HS,ever emp 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.03
Syr,F,>= HS,never emp 0.07 0.05 0.05 0.05
Syr,F,>= HS,ever emp 0.06 0.05 0.06 0.06
Jor,M,< HS,never emp 0.05 0.05 0.05 0.07
Jor,M,< HS,ever emp 0.08 0.09 0.09 0.11
Jor,M,>= HS,never emp 0.08 0.10 0.06 0.05
Jor,M,>= HS,ever emp 0.07 0.06 0.04 0.08
Jor,F,< HS,never emp 0.04 0.04 0.05 0.04
Jor,F,< HS,ever emp 0.09 0.07 0.06 0.06
Jor,F,>= HS,never emp 0.07 0.05 0.04 0.06
Jor,F,>= HS,ever emp 0.05 0.04 0.10 0.06

Column 2

Posterior probability for each treatment to be optimal, given stratum

stratum cash information psychological control
Syr,M,< HS,never emp 0.49 0.12 0.11 0.28
Syr,M,< HS,ever emp 0.25 0.15 0.21 0.39
Syr,M,>= HS,never emp 0.32 0.13 0.12 0.44
Syr,M,>= HS,ever emp 0.22 0.17 0.28 0.34
Syr,F,< HS,never emp 0.63 0.26 0.10 0.01
Syr,F,< HS,ever emp 0.34 0.31 0.25 0.10
Syr,F,>= HS,never emp 0.44 0.18 0.15 0.22
Syr,F,>= HS,ever emp 0.31 0.21 0.23 0.26
Jor,M,< HS,never emp 0.21 0.14 0.13 0.52
Jor,M,< HS,ever emp 0.10 0.17 0.25 0.48
Jor,M,>= HS,never emp 0.27 0.48 0.15 0.10
Jor,M,>= HS,ever emp 0.34 0.17 0.05 0.45
Jor,F,< HS,never emp 0.26 0.23 0.28 0.23
Jor,F,< HS,ever emp 0.57 0.18 0.10 0.16
Jor,F,>= HS,never emp 0.41 0.18 0.07 0.34
Jor,F,>= HS,ever emp 0.08 0.04 0.73 0.16

Column 3

Current assignment probabilities

stratum cash information psychological control
Syr,M,< HS,never emp 0.44 0.15 0.14 0.27
Syr,M,< HS,ever emp 0.25 0.17 0.22 0.36
Syr,M,>= HS,never emp 0.30 0.15 0.15 0.40
Syr,M,>= HS,ever emp 0.23 0.18 0.27 0.32
Syr,F,< HS,never emp 0.55 0.26 0.13 0.06
Syr,F,< HS,ever emp 0.32 0.30 0.25 0.13
Syr,F,>= HS,never emp 0.41 0.20 0.17 0.23
Syr,F,>= HS,ever emp 0.30 0.21 0.23 0.26
Jor,M,< HS,never emp 0.22 0.16 0.15 0.46
Jor,M,< HS,ever emp 0.13 0.18 0.25 0.43
Jor,M,>= HS,never emp 0.27 0.43 0.17 0.13
Jor,M,>= HS,ever emp 0.32 0.18 0.09 0.41
Jor,F,< HS,never emp 0.26 0.23 0.28 0.23
Jor,F,< HS,ever emp 0.50 0.19 0.13 0.18
Jor,F,>= HS,never emp 0.38 0.19 0.11 0.32
Jor,F,>= HS,ever emp 0.11 0.08 0.63 0.18

Inference, parameters

Column 2

90% credible sets for success probabilities

stratum cash information psychological control
Syr,M,< HS,never emp (0.03, 0.11) (0.00, 0.08) (0.01, 0.07) (0.02, 0.10)
Syr,M,< HS,ever emp (0.04, 0.11) (0.02, 0.10) (0.03, 0.11) (0.04, 0.12)
Syr,M,>= HS,never emp (0.03, 0.16) (0.01, 0.12) (0.01, 0.12) (0.02, 0.22)
Syr,M,>= HS,ever emp (0.02, 0.12) (0.01, 0.13) (0.02, 0.15) (0.02, 0.16)
Syr,F,< HS,never emp (0.02, 0.07) (0.01, 0.06) (0.01, 0.05) (0.00, 0.03)
Syr,F,< HS,ever emp (0.02, 0.09) (0.01, 0.10) (0.02, 0.09) (0.01, 0.07)
Syr,F,>= HS,never emp (0.03, 0.14) (0.01, 0.11) (0.01, 0.10) (0.01, 0.13)
Syr,F,>= HS,ever emp (0.02, 0.12) (0.01, 0.12) (0.01, 0.13) (0.01, 0.15)
Jor,M,< HS,never emp (0.02, 0.10) (0.01, 0.09) (0.01, 0.09) (0.04, 0.11)
Jor,M,< HS,ever emp (0.04, 0.13) (0.05, 0.14) (0.05, 0.14) (0.06, 0.16)
Jor,M,>= HS,never emp (0.04, 0.15) (0.04, 0.19) (0.02, 0.13) (0.00, 0.12)
Jor,M,>= HS,ever emp (0.03, 0.12) (0.02, 0.11) (0.01, 0.08) (0.03, 0.14)
Jor,F,< HS,never emp (0.01, 0.08) (0.02, 0.07) (0.02, 0.08) (0.02, 0.08)
Jor,F,< HS,ever emp (0.05, 0.15) (0.03, 0.12) (0.03, 0.10) (0.03, 0.12)
Jor,F,>= HS,never emp (0.03, 0.11) (0.02, 0.10) (0.01, 0.08) (0.02, 0.12)
Jor,F,>= HS,ever emp (0.01, 0.10) (0.00, 0.09) (0.06, 0.17) (0.02, 0.12)

Column 4

90% credible sets, plotted

Inference, treatment effects

Column 1

95% credible sets for population weighted average potential outcomes

95% credible sets, Syrians only

95% credible sets, Jordanians only

Column 2

95% credible sets for population weighted treatment contrasts against control

95% credible sets, Syrians only

95% credible sets, Jordanians only

Policy comparisons

Column 1

Point estimates

Comparison of the average potential outcomes for the actually chosen treatment assignment to the average that would have obtained under random assignment, \[\begin{align*} \Delta_1 &= \tfrac{1}{N} \sum_{i,t} \left ( \hat E\left [\theta^{D_{it} X_{it}} \right ] - \tfrac{1}{4} \sum_d \hat E\left [\theta^{d X_{it}}\right ] \right )\\ &=0.002 \end{align*}\]

Comparison of the optimal targeted policy, and the optimal non-targeted policy, to the default of (treatment \(0\)), \[\begin{align*} \Delta_2 &= \sum_x \left ( \max_d \hat E\left [\theta^{dx} \right ] - \hat E\left [\theta^{0x} \right ] \right ) p^x\\ &= 0.014, \\ \Delta_3 &= \max_d \sum_x \left (\hat E\left [\theta^{dx} \right ] - \hat E\left [\theta^{0x} \right ] \right ) p^x \\ &= 0.005. \end{align*}\]

Column 2

Credible sets

95% credible sets: \[\begin{align*} \Delta_1: &\quad (0.00, 0.00)\\ \Delta_2: &\quad (0.00, 0.03)\\ \Delta_3: &\quad (-0.02, 0.03) \end{align*}\]

90% credible sets: \[\begin{align*} \Delta_1: &\quad (0.00, 0.00)\\ \Delta_2: &\quad (0.00, 0.03)\\ \Delta_3: &\quad (-0.02, 0.03) \end{align*}\]

Source data

Source data, sorted by date